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Even if she is now moved to perhaps a vote on Mays-Brexit Deal the government comes around. But what happens in case of a no? Would May lose your office? A look at the different scenarios.
expand AllIt would be a small miracle if Theresa May would have a parliamentary majority for Brexit agreement. But the chances are still poor.
The facts speak against May: The Prime Minister needs to have 320 votes in the Parliament so that the agreement is sure to be ratified. From her own Tory party may hope to about 220 loyal friends. That is to say, May would have about 100 more members to your page or to bring twice as many, with one abstention, to your Deal.
In the British house of Commons there are 650 seats. The Parliament speaker and his three deputies are not allowed to vote. Seven Northern Irish Sinn Féin parliamentarians take their mandate not true. Thus, 639 members. The simple majority is reached at 320 votes. Mays Conservatives currently have 315 seats in the lower house. So far May has been based on ten members of the Northern Irish DUP. However, the DUP, the majority of the 257 opposition Labour members, as well as a number of may's Conservatives, announced the Brexit-the agreement to disagree.
more Likely to appear at the moment that the parliamentarians will reject your with the EU negotiated contract. But what next then? The following scenarios would be possible:
scenario 1: May re-negotiatethe house of the Deal falling through or the Vote shifts, the opportunity for May to negotiate would be the same on Thursday. Then, the EU heads of state and government meet in Brussels for their last summit this year. The Brexiteers in the UK, rejoice already that May could negotiate in a "handbag Moment" new conditions. You play on a legendary appearance by Margaret Thatcher, who had at the time of an EU summit in 1984, more rebate for your country. In the process, they introduced several times pointedly her purse on the table, as if she wanted to cancel the talks.
However, for the EU to engage in further discussions, is not very likely. "We will not negotiate," stated the Commission just before the vote again. EU diplomats warn that with renegotiations, the "Pandora's box might be opened": a British claim in a timely manner could be many, and also other EU countries were not with the Brexit Deal satisfied, could require repairs. Also, May has no interest in the Brexit-package re-draw.
scenario 2: A hard Brexita Brexit without agreement, because May fail in the Parliament, and the EU refuses to renegotiate, would on 29. March 2019, suddenly, all the relationships from the age of 45 EU-capped membership. Aircraft could remain on the ground, Were could get stuck in customs and travelers in border controls. The British pound would lose, according to the Bank of England by 25 per cent in value, exports were to collapse.
A way out of the Emergency agreements with the EU, in order to prevent a complete Chaos. So some rules could be extended to a few months. To do this, diplomats of the rules governing the air transport, stay and visa issues, as well as financial service lines, according to the EU.
