What is your prediction for the vote of confidence tonight?
It probably sounds to many absurd, but it is likely that the Prime Minister May not trust the vote of no survive. In British politics it is currently topsy-turvy. Jeremy Corbyn, the chief of the opposition Labour party, called for the vote of confidence, even in his party, there is no clear line as to how it should go after the crash lost the vote of the government to exit the agreement yesterday evening. In her own party May, according to strong critics (118 Tories yesterday voted against her, with the EU-negotiated agreement), but there are in the party so far, no Alternative to their Person. This is probably the most unattractive Job in the country.
Should contact Mrs May or so back?
In Germany, it would not be hard to imagine that a head of government with such a low-swing back delivers the result in yesterday's vote. Conversely, this is a dramatic Situation for the UK - and, increasingly, also for the EU and its members. Europe has no interest in it, a roadmap must come now in order to prevent a chaotic withdrawal by the end of March, no government in the UK. May has built up in spite of the difficult negotiations and their constant infighting in their own government a good working relationship to Brussels. You have to trust your sincerity. But you knew, of course, from the beginning of their problems at home and it looked actually at no time so that you get the exit agreement through the Parliament. Therefore, it has prepared in the main European cities, of course, also that it comes at the end of March 2019 to a disorderly exit.
When the responsibility for the Disaster lies with Theresa May, what is your error?
she was yielding to the pressure of the "Brexiteers" too early, and the discharge process started early - in March 2017, less than a year after the Referendum, as in London, still completely unclear on how to develop the future relations with the EU, old wants. As the clock began to tick. The exit process, as such, is associated with many complex issues. The EU was much better prepared, and, above all, the 27 members from the very beginning had a clear common position. Only in June 2018, the government has submitted to the Dec a Plan, the so-called Chequers-Plan. But it was much too late.
How will it go further?
As I said, you probably will survive the confidence vote. Jan even has announced that they will introduce for this case, next Monday a new Plan in the lower house. What will be in there, it is currently completely unclear. The EU has already made it clear they will not undo the exit agreement. That is understandable. The path to this agreement was a lot of hard work, there was also, and the risk is too great that, at some point, the 27 remaining members are not agreed. May have to create the quadrature of the circle: your critics want you to stammering of the EU, a better deal, the EU will not negotiate. It is conceivable, however, that the EU extended the deadline for the exit, as in the case of a General election or a further Referendum. Both is conceivable. In all of the open questions, one thing is clear: The deep split in the country will not be so easily overcome.More about
Brexit EU reacted cautiously to the London PlanAlbrecht Meier
- Almut Möller is a political scientist and Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the Director of the Berlin office.