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Brandenburg, Saxony, Thuringia : elections in the East: is the CDU's clear from the AfD?

all the people in Clausnitz, village in the Saxon municipality of Rechenberg-Bienenmühle, wants to begin Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) in the new year, the number of its citizens ' conversations. On 8. January he comes to the discussion in the agricultural cooperative "Bergland". The inhabitants are loaded in the so-called Fishbowl-step procedure to the table to Kretschmer and the mayor of the municipality and Express their opinions. In that municipality, so that in February 2016, the world's headlines – as inhabitants of an incoming Bus with refugees, foreigners are blocked, "out" and "We are called the people". From the "disgrace of Clausnitz" was in the daily mirror.

Clausnitz is not a campaign event, at least officially. And yet the election campaign has already begun in the three East German Federal States, in 2019, the composition of the country in a new way. Next to Saxony, the Thuringia and Brandenburg. In 2014, these were the first three States, where the AfD entered into Parliament, with results of between 9.7 and 12.2 percent.
To the governments of the then right-wing populist, and today more and more radical right-wing party was not involved.

The coalitions in the three countries were very different: In Saxony, a CDU-SPD Alliance replaced the black-yellow government. Because of the continuing weakness of the social Democrats in the free state it deserves the name "Grand coalition". In Brandenburg, the SPD was able to secure politicians, Dietmar Woidke, the majority for a red-red government coalition. And in Thuringia, party history was written: After a week long negotiations, was elected in December, 2014 with Bodo Ramelow the first Left politician to the head of government of a Federal country.

Left must head to government-Posts

And now, in 2019, fear? You Believe the polls, it will remain in any of the three Federal States of Germany as it is. Both Kretschmer as well as Woidke and Ramelow have to fear a loss of majority for their previous government's alliances, perhaps even to your office. The AfD estimates that the pollsters are currently much higher than on the election days of 2014: In Saxony, on 25 percent, in Thuringia, last updated between 22 and 23 percent, and in Brandenburg, between 21 and 23 percent. This is very close to the best result of the AfD in the case of a state election In March 2016, the party in Saxony-Anhalt came to 24.3 percent. The CDU, the SPD and the greens agreed on the first Kenya-coalition, who did not want long, all in the CDU there, and observers estimate that every third CDU member of Parliament coalition could live in the Magdeburg state Parliament with a CDU-AfD-well.

AfD wants to spend a Million euros for election campaigns

About a possible "March" of the AfD in the upcoming parliamentary elections, the dpa news Agency speculated now. "It is striking that the AfD has a section in surveys, in General, worse than later in the election," it says in your report. The political scientist Hans Vorländer is quoted: "We know from the research that it surveys is often a distortion ,social desirability' of the answers. Many believe that it is socially not be desirable to commit to the AfD.“ According to information of the "mirror" wants to spend the party for the three Landtag election campaigns, more than a Million euros, in Saxony alone, 800 Events are planned.

Prime Minister of Thuringia Bodo Ramelow (Left), seen here in December at the premiere of journey of the intercity trains from Gera to...photo by Bodo Schackow/dpa-Central

Currently, the CDU and the AfD are in the three Federal States in surveys of close to each other. The Left comes in a similar or slightly lower values. Only in Brandenburg, the SPD may draw the same. The nationwide high-altitude flight of the Green is reflected also in the East. The FDP can hope to make a Comeback in all three state parliaments. That is expected to be: Six-party parliaments. And a very complicated formation of a government. For the Participants it is very much: Stabilizes the AfD? The CDU leadership is a clear demarcation to the AfD? The Left two of its three government is losing investments, what for you would be an extreme setback? The SPD is also in other Federal States in Saxony?

on the question of whether there should be an approach to the AfD, say leading CDU politician no, because the AfD in the East, positioned to the extreme right and closely related to the xenophobic Pegida movement and humor. Saxony's Left party leader Rico Gebhardt, who wants to lead his party in the state election, has stated that he does not take Kretschmer, personally, draw the distinction between AfD, but not the party.

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But the CDU head of the government, with his dialogue can be a concept successfully? With a view to the citizens-debate in Clausnitz Kretschmer says, in small communities, the problems would be addressed "directly, the discussions are very much alive". This is "democracy in action". On the xenophobic riots almost two years ago, he is not included in the invitation. Also, he was involved, when rights to the same conclusion has been relativized in the free state, for example after the riots in Chemnitz. In the Parliament Kretschmer said, there was "not a Mob" and "no witch hunt" – a firm determination, which he regretted later internally.
And how it runs in Thuringia and Brandenburg? Mike Mohring, CDU-leader of the opposition in the Erfurt Parliament, has ruled out an Alliance with the AfD clear, Ramelow, he was praised for it. In Brandenburg the CDU is considering in-chief Ingo Senftleben even a coalition with the Left. Although there were with her ", in particular in the field of Internal security, extremely large differences". With the AfD, however, there is, under the leadership of the country Manager, Andreas Kalbitz equal to "no commonalities".

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