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As with the magic formula? These are the eight scenarios

The magic formula is a myth of Swiss politics. For 60 years she has determined the composition of the Federal Council . However, with the Swiss Federal elections of October, the spell was broken formula. Since the green landslide victory, the composition of the state government no longer reflects the new balance of forces in Parliament. (Read here, why the old magic formula is dead.)

What to do? The United Federal Assembly shall decide on the 11. December 2019, with the complete re-election of the Federal Council. Switzerland receives on this day, a new magic formula? And if Yes: What for? To the debate less than eight variants are not.

1. The new 2:2:1:1:1-formula

For this to work, advocate the Green itself, supported by the SP, and the green-liberal. Instead of the up to now four in the future five parties would be represented in the state government. The FDP – so far, twice – would have to give the Greens a seat.

In the Federal house a wide consensus that it is not Karin Keller-would be voted out of office Sutter, but the Ticino Ignazio Cassis. However, until now the Greens have not said whether you Cassis’ office on may 11. December ever attack, let alone with whom. SVP and SP would retain their two seats; the only CVP-seat (Viola Amherd) would be safe. So Viola Amherd would re-the undisputed center in the Bundesrat, and could either form the left or right of majorities.

a Broad consensus Would have to give the liberals a seat, would it Ignazio Cassis, not Karin Keller-Sutter. Photo: Keystone

2. The Blocher-formula

Mathematically, there are 14.3 per cent of voters share a seat in the Federal Council (100 percent divided by 7). Therefore, the vote share of the SP justifies actually only a seat – in the same way as in the case of the FDP. The SP has achieved the worst election result in a hundred years, and is 16.8 percent, only a little ahead of the FDP (15.1 percent). SVP mastermind, Christoph Blocher, argues in the "Sunday newspaper" that not only the FDP should assign a seat, but also the SP. One of these seats would go according to Blocher to the Green, and the other to the green liberals.

The green liberals reached 7.8 per cent, its best result and are therefore closer to a first seat as a SP and FDP in their second. Thus, only the SVP had two Federal councillors. SP, FDP, CVP, Green and GLP would have one. It is precisely on this distribution key is also, if you distributed the seven seats on the Federal Council in accordance with the common, strictly mathematical Sainte-Laguë method.

3. The 2:3:2 formula

If the Greens actually get a seat at the expense of the FDP, had left the camp three seats, and would be übervertreten thus, mathematically. This applies all the more as the party programs of the SP and the Greens on many issues coincide. The "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" it is no longer brought about a 2:3:2 formula to the game, which the Federal Council seats each party speaks, but on three blocks distributed to the left, center and right.

The SVP could retain their two seats, the SP, and the Green get together also two. This would correspond pretty exactly to your cumulative vote share of 30 per cent. One of the two SP - representatives – Simonetta Sommaruga and Alain Berset – would have to make, therefore, a representative of the Green square. The middle parties would have three seats. Probably a case of the CVP and the FDP would remain of it. The third middle seat is likely to fall – at least in the medium term – of the GLP. In the end, the 2:3:2 formula could therefore run on the same composition as the Blocher-formula.

4. Magic formula reloaded

It would also be possible, the old magic formula continue and the new Parliament composition to be applied. This means that the three voters with the strongest parties were given two seats each, and the fourth biggest one. In this logic, the CVP would have to cede the seat of Viola Amherd on the Green. This approach does not take into account that the CVP votes at the voters behind the Green on # 5 is back in favor in the Council of States but continues to be the strongest or second strongest power remains (depending on the output of the second Ballot).

5. Nine members of the

Many of the parliamentarians are afraid of the deselection of existing Federal councillors – to a strong presence of the turbulence, which occurred in 2003, around the deselection of Ruth Metzler (CVP) are many. A dismissal could be avoided if the state government would be enlarged to nine members. A Federal Council with nine members has been discussed in the past already several times, but each Time discarded. Now, SP President Christian Levrat in the "SonntagsBlick has brought" an increase back in the game. This will allow "more scope to integrate the major parties is appropriate in the government," says Levrat. In addition, a government will not be in accordance with with just seven Ministers already more time.

Deselected: Federal councillor Ruth Metzler on 10. December 2003 in the national Council hall. Photo: Keystone

6. Total system change in

The magic formula is an expression of the concordance system. This States that the main political forces are represented in the government. The fundamental option would be a government and opposition system. It could be a middle-to - left or a centre-right coalition. Either the SVP or the SP, and the Green would be banished to the Opposition. In Switzerland such a System is gaining a foothold on larger problems than in other countries, because the Opposition could paralyze the coalition government with referendums.

7. Ad-hoc-alliances

The Parliament will be able to let today's magic formula of leakage, without defining a new one. Instead, the Federal Council composition is in the future each time a new vacancy is re-negotiated. The parties could bear the most virulent topics (for example, climate or Migration) better account – and also the quality of the Candidates more closely than in the past, sometimes the case. For such Ad-hoc Federal Council elections, Patrick Feuz, editor-in-chief of the newspaper "The Federal government calls".

8. Status quo

The Parliament is free, on 11. December, the shifts in power to ignore in Parliament, and all seven members of the Federal Council re-elect. So it would say goodbye to the magic formula. For the Status quo, the liberals under President Petra Gössi, but also other bourgeois politicians from CVP and SVP calls currently, of course. Their main Argument: The Greens will not prove in four years that your choice was a success just a flash in the pan. In addition, the representatives of the Status quo point out that in the past, each of the other parties only with the delay in the Federal Council were taken. The SVP received about their second seat in 2003 – four years after its ascent to the strongest party.

Created: 21.11.2019, 11:34 PM

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