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Annika Ström Melin: Right-wing forces are strengthened by the black and white picture of the EUROPEAN elections

for the EUROPEAN elections continues Marine Le Pen attempts to make the French National collection to a politically more nicer party.

in the Past, she has kicked out his father, the founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has changed the party's name and tried to cut of the old National front's deep racist roots.

Now she doesn't want to anymore, that France should leave the EU and the euro. ”The French have shown that they feel connected with the euro”, has called on the party's election manifesto. Marine Le Pen declares that she wants to ”change this "european union" from the inside”, and thereby also breaking his own ”political isolation” in Europe.

the black-and-white picture of the political situation in Europe, where ”the national” is said to stand against the ”globalists”. As if it was just the two pages that set up in the EU elections.

Le Pen, with the help of the black-and-white picture trying to blow up his own political role in Europe is understandable. But why she gets the help of so many of their opponents to make the EUROPEAN elections on the way? The political reality is considerably more complex.

There are, of course, every reason to take Marine Le Pen and her political friends very seriously, but their importance should not be overstated.

for the EUROPEAN elections in may shows that the ENF (the Nations and the Europe of freedom), the political group that, among other things, the National collection and Italian Lega belong to in the day, will increase from the current 37 to about 60 seats.

It is largely due to the Lega looks to become Italy's largest party, and thus also the second-largest party in the whole of the EU-parliament, which in itself is a political sensation.

the lega's leader, Matteo Salvini also hope to be able to transform the ENF into a much larger and more influential group, but so far it has not gone particularly well.

A better explanation is that Europe's nationalist parties is a fragmented collection of many shun each other like the plague.

When the new organisation EAPN (European alliance for peoples and nations) was formed during a meeting in Milan at the beginning of april, it seems to have become a rather dreary event.

Only four parties – the Lega, the Dansk folkeparti, the true finns and the German AFD – attended. National federation leaders were ”busy with other things”, explained a pressed Matteo Salvini, when he repeatedly got questions about Le Pen during the press conference after the meeting.

Europe's nationalist parties is a fragmented collection of many shun each other like the plague. the If the Salvini wants to have a continued relationship with Le Pen, he may expect to a lot of other parties continue to keep a safe distance.

But even if the Salvini in the unlikely event manage to get all of the three political groups, which today houses the eurosceptic and nationalist parties in the EUROPEAN parliament (ECR, ENF and EFDD), it would be enough to push through the decision in the EU parliament.

The three groups are calculated together to get between 165 and 180 seats, will still be a minority of the parliament's 705 locations (if the united kingdom does not participate, otherwise, 751 mandate).

in the EUROPEAN parliament are made by simple majority (at least half of those voting), or so-called absolute majority (at least half of the number of members), such a group is neither able to stop or to push decisions through without the help of others.

the decision rule has some exceptions. On the EUROPEAN parliament to activate article 7, which could lead to an EU country that violates the principles of democracy are punished, it is required, for example, two-thirds of the number of declared votes.

But the main rule is simple or absolute majority. The right wing can not, therefore, affect merely by inserting the lugs of the hill. And despite the fact that the nationalist parties, without doubt, goes strongly forward, it seems the traditional political parties still have a decent advantage.

the socialist S&D is expected to go back, but still be the largest and the second largest group and land of about 180 respectively 149 seats.

It would mean that the EPP and S&D does not have a majority together and therefore can not continue the traditional, blocköverskridande policy in the EU-parliament. Decision-making can thus be messier and more unpredictable than in the past.

But in cooperation with, for example, the liberal Alde group, which is expected to go forward, or with the greens, the EPP and S&D still form a comfortable majority without having to be dependent on of the extreme nationalists.

neither black nor white, but far more fragmented than in the past.

A crucial question is whether the EPP will continue to try to make up over blockgränsen or seek a more active support from the emerging, nationalist right wing. On its own, however, Salvini & Co. didn't accomplish very much in the EU parliament.

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