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Also a big victim of Theresa May is now possible

It wasn't enough. On Tuesday evening, the British Parliament has rejected again the Brexit Treaty. The conservative Prime Minister Theresa May had is on Monday evening with the EU on clarifications in the case of a controversial clause – in the hope that this would give a majority. But these minor concessions could not persuade enough of the opponents of the agreement in may's Conservative party. The embattled head of government managed to reduce the extent of the defeat. In the first vote in January, 432 parliamentarians against the contract that had been agreed in London and Brussels, and only 202 were in favour. Now the result of 391 242.

Now everything is possible: a Brexit without a contract, a shift, a withdrawal Mays, new elections, a second Referendum or a majority for the agreement.

According to the current planning, the Brits leave the EU in a good two weeks, at 29. March. Without a valid agreement of an unregulated Brexit threatens. The agreed Transition period, in which almost nothing should change, is removed. Instead, it would be immediately introduced harmful customs duties and customs controls. The ports in the UK and on the mainland are not sufficiently prepared to serve as soon as the customs border between the EU and the fifth-largest economy in the world. Therefore, it could lead to Chaos and traffic jams. The constant supply for factories and super markets would be at risk.

What's going on with Labour?

this Wednesday, the deputies must decide whether the country should leave the EU without agreement. The large majority across all parties rejects such a harmful separation. Therefore, it is expected that the favour of the lower house. If that happens, the parliamentarian may vote on Thursday on whether May should ask the EU to a shift of the exit. Probably, the deputies of the Prime Minister would grant this order. The heads of state and government of the EU could match this Please in your summit at the end of next week. A postponement up to the European elections in may should not cause any major problems.

However, a deferral does not answer the question of how the Blockade in London can be resolved. That May is not a majority, of the resistance of many members of their own group. These followers of a hard-Brexit interfere with the so-called Backstop for Northern Ireland, a clause to prevent that ever customs controls between the member of the EU, Ireland and the British Northern Ireland will be necessary. The Backstop provides that the Kingdom enters into a customs Union with the EU, if controls are not different avert. The Brexit enthusiasts fear among the Conservatives that the country could be trapped permanently in a close relationship with Brussels.

The EU has made it clear that the on Monday evening agreed adjustments represent the end of the negotiations, other Changes are up for debate. May want to get the Treaty through the Parliament, do not need to search for new majorities, if the conservative dissenters to give up their resistance. The head of government could go to the largest opposition party, Labour.

The social-Democrats strive for a softer Brexit; you want the UK to stay permanently in a customs Union with Brussels, in order to avoid disadvantages for British industry, and to defuse the Backstop Problem. Yet May refuses. You are switching to a customs Union, you would be etching many of its conservative members increase, however, a significant part of these Tories voted Yes anyway against the Treaty. As a reward for the softer course waving enough votes to Labour, to approve the agreement.

The shambles is just the beginning

Because even after a Change of Brexit-course, it would be necessary that the consents under the agreements. Just then, a transitional phase in which almost nothing changes begins after the outlet. In this important Phase, until the end of 2020 or 2022 to last, want to London and Brussels to conclude a trade Treaty, which regulates the relations in the long term. Only when these talks will determine whether the UK and the EU form a customs Union, whether the UK, in part, a member of the internal market, whether the country should limit future immigration from the EU. It may seem to the wrangling of the past few months as a surprise, but the really interesting negotiations have not yet started. The shambles to the exit of the contract is merely the Overture.

Want to meet May Labour in the case of the customs Union, must not be changed in the exit contract. Finally, this 585-page document does not deal with such issues. However, the question is whether or May want to – and if your group and your Cabinet will allow. In December, May, survived a motion of censure in the group, and according to the Party, a new application must be made articles of Association, only twelve months later. But would threaten to change course many of the Ministers will resign, or many of the group members with their exit, this would allow May have no other choice, to say Good-bye.

An Alternative would be that May comes up to Labour, but instead it tries, with a big victim of the unruly Brexit-right of believers to appease the Conservatives. You could promise to quickly withdraw, if the pests only approve finally the contract. The reasoning is that The Fans of the hard exit would have to wave the odious Backstop, could, however, be sure that the really important talks with the EU – not to be led about the future relations – of May, but by one of your own.

Safe only uncertainty

new elections are another possibility. It could come very quickly, if May has her group and the small partners, the DUP, Northern Ireland's regional party. The parties could offer the citizens of different Brexit strategies. In the elections of 2017, both Conservatives and Labour promised to lead the country out of the EU. What would promise to Labour in elections, it is difficult to predict, because the party is in the theme just as split as the Conservatives. This is in Opposition, not only less. Pollsters see the Tories stable before Labour, because the altlinke head of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn is regarded by many Britons as too radical and too little like a statesman.

Recently Corbyn announced that Labour would support the call for a new Referendum – but only if the was not stop, in his view, harmful to the Brexit course of May be different. Corbyn thus favours new elections, and he would support the Prime Minister even if Labour go far enough. So far, no majority for a new people is foreseen in the Parliament's vote. There would be a Referendum, it would be according to surveys, again just.

the only certainty is uncertainty. And which will last. (Editorial Tamedia)

Created: 12.03.2019, 21:34 PM

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