(Obi.no:) Through this year's first week, we experienced both a panic in the stock market, followed by the euphoria of reassuring statements from governor Powell in the united STATES. The question now is, according to the chief strategist, Leif-Rune Rein, and seniorstrateg Sigrid Wilter Slørstad in Nordea Wealth Management about forhåpningene related to a more careful monetary policy in the U.S. leads to a lasting improvement in sentiment, or whether the fear coming back again.
"the Conclusion is just to wait, but with an increase of 1.9 per cent (in usd) the previous week in each case, investors a respite from the high volatility that characterized the end of 2018. Other risky assets, such as HY-bonds also showed gjenopphenting, with a margininngang of approx. 40bp aided by a steady rise in the price of oil", called it in a recent update.
Better mood now
the Mood in the market is clearly better, when the market is now apparently ignoring disappointing economic data, and focus on the positive signals. What caused the mood to shift so abruptly, ask strategene.
An important factor is, according to the two that after the correction in December, much negative is already priced into the stock prices. Thus, it is easier to deal with the disappointing data, and a list to surprise on the positive is low.
"another, perhaps more important factor, is the signals from the central bank in the united STATES, both Powell's statement, the minutes from the rentemøtet who came the previous week, as well as a number of confirmations from Powell and his colleagues during the week, that the central bank of the united STATES will show greater flexibility with respect to further tightening", is called it in the update.
This, together with a knallsterk arbeidsmarkedsrapport in the beginning of the year, according to Rein and Wilter Slørstad reduced the fear of misguided policies from the Fed and fears of a recession.
"this week we have the dog is not downwind from the strong macro data, and a list to surprise positively gradually becomes higher".
Through this week, we get commercial - and kredittdata from China. The first will provide greater insight into how hard handelskrigen affects the chinese economy, while the second will show if China, their attempts to stimulate the economy begins to gain success.
"Handelssektoren in the united STATES experienced a fall last week, after Macy's cut in future earnings, and several other companies in the sector disappointed both on sales and guiding. This provides detaljhandelsdata from united STATES additional attention, which will be published on Wednesday (if the government shut-down is cancelled)" it's called.
Will steal a lot of the focus
Ahead, the inntjeningssesongen for 4. quarter steal much of investors ' focus, and this week reports the 35 companies in the S&P 500 reports this week, including the banks.
"Inntjeningsveksten for 4. quarter is expected to be nok 14.7 per cent (IBES), which in this case will be the fifth quarter with double-digit growth. History shows that as a rule the actual inntjeningsveksten higher than the estimate, which can contribute to the positive sentiment," writes strategene.
future prospects of the companies will probably still be the most important factor for the stock market, when it just was waning growth as worried about the market in 4. quarter of 2018.
"On the political side snøres as mentioned online together in the united Kingdom, and it is not entirely unlikely that the prime minister must ask for a postponement of article 50, if the agreement her tune down the 15. January. In the united STATES has the government shut-down is now turned old records, and is the longest ever".
Can weighing down the economy
Friday marked the day where around 800 000 government workers were not paid wages, which increases the pressure for Republicans and Democrats to come to an agreement. Trump has warned that he is willing to declare a national emergency to get the money to build the wall.
"This situation has not influenced the markets, but if it persists it will burden the economy in the united STATES, and probably lead to an uncertainty even when the equity markets", concludes Nordea-strategene in the update.currency:
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