Why the world is so unpredictable

Tweeting President, fickle voters, crumbling institutions: Klaus Goetz explores the increasing turbulence in the policy.

A Tweet Donald trump can change the world. Time and content are hardly to predict. The US President is to mood. Other populist politicians. A sudden, surprising also become the behavior of the voters. The first indication of a fundamental change? In politics, anyway, you observe, more and more "turbulence", writes the Munich-based political scientist Klaus Goetz, who wants to go to the phenomenon.

SZ: are you conducting research on turbulence in the policy. What is meant by that? Turbulent it was, but often in the history.

Klaus Goetz: There are phases with more irregularity and greater rashes, if orders fall or be challenged. The classic break times and there is much to suggest that we in such. The end of the eighties, we were in Eastern Europe, now we see also in the West erosion processes, which lead to higher turbulence.

How do you define turbulence, is that a new term?

He comes from the natural Sciences, but increasingly in the social Sciences collection. Thus, the observation of uncertainty, Unexpected to erratic behavior or the resolution of the rules, the Chaos is connected. In the centre of

What are the consequences of the national and international level?

The choice is a sudden behavior, for example, the citizens decide more and more often, shortly before the elections, often under the influence of recent events. Signs of erratic behavior, there are, particularly where there is a lot of Power in a Person concentrated, such as in the United States.

you think of Donald Trump or Matteo Salvini, the Italian Minister of the interior?

Goetz is Professor for Political systems and European Integration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich. He heads a research group on the theme of "temporality, turbulence, and Transformation" at the Center for Advanced Studies at the LMU.

There are governing the use of the Breaking of rules as a rule technology. There are also institutions such as parties, part of their stabilizing effect lose, and under the influence of strong leaders, great changes are taking populist parties.

Promoted to the populism of the turbulence?

institutions of representative democracy - political parties, trade unions, traditional media, courts apply the populists as confounding factors, because they occur between the "popular will" and the Ruling, because they distort the "people's will", allegedly. Therefore, want to populists weaknesses of these institutions. Manage that and you are also still in the government, their scope to act in a less rule-bound. And such an Act is more difficult to predict.

Changes so the Policy just fundamental?

Since there are great differences in Europe alone. In countries such as Germany, the intermediary institutions are still strong and have a stabilizing effect. In other Parts, the weakening of political parties or trade unions is advanced significantly, and the media are in a process of Erosion. In countries such as Hungary, the weakening of the institutions is not only in buying, but to the program. Such a resolution, the likelihood of political turbulence.

Maybe there are already new rules, and we can't see them yet?

This is an interesting question. Through social media, a new political space has emerged, whose rules are emerging. This relates to the question of how the issues or disappear. Or what is the connection between the digital world and the world of parties and organisations.

What we can see?

One consequence is clear: more acceleration. Discussions on the Internet, Trends in social media, emotions come to expression, can be directly observed, are not filtered. The Public must not wait until an organization expresses itself to a subject or to an editorial. The policy provides for an immediate action. They can be found to ignore such opinions and moods little or wait until things are set, and on - time - consuming-institutions of representative democracy solutions.

the social media provide, but also opportunities.

Sure, and it would be wrong, especially as a Problem. You, for example, offer new opportunities for communication of the policy to the citizens: out of the blue. Donald Trump is aimed at the traditional media over directly to the voters. He uses the Erratic specifically, works with moments of Surprise. You never know when the next Tweet comes from and why. This guarantees to him the constant attention of political observers and makes it more difficult for the Opposition to offer him a Match.

If we are to take the international level: Instead of the comparatively manageable East-West conflict, compete again several centres of power. It is of little surprise that the world is thus, unstable.

Surprisingly, of whom the instability originates. You had not expected, that powers such as China or India to destabilize the Western-created order. Instead, do this now, as my colleague Bernhard Zangl, analyzed, especially the United States, which were considered to be the Main profiteer of this order. You seem to be acting against their interests, which brings more uncertainty into the System.

this new political world Is more dangerous?

There is a potential danger. Many International bodies, the EU, but also other instruments of cooperation in question: Nato, the UN, the relief and works Agency for Palestine, Unesco, the world trade organization. Such institutions set the boundaries within which political Action is possible. The more it is possible to reign in these institutions is over, the greater the turbulence.

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