Five years of Vladimir Putin's stay on a Post of the Russian President, according to the Constitution, it would be his last term in office. Most of them were so far away, he'll actually retire. However, at present the signals that Putin is in the year 2024 – then 71 years old, and a quarter of a century is planning to do – not multiply. Putin is clearly looking for an Alternative to the rest. In Moscow, it has long been a social game, to discuss the question of how "He" makes it.
Again, a fictitious exchange, with its head of government Dmitry Medvedev? An Amendment To The Constitution? Both are in the conversation, seems to be currently, but too risky. The discontent of the population grows, the Crimean euphoria is largely gone, the wars against the Ukraine and in Syria are expensive and the economy slides into a recession. Therefore, Putin's team is currently working hard on an elegant solution. The neighbor puts Belarus in focus.
Not a common visit to the ice-hockey
If the two States are so close that they are not officially a Union, then it is noticeable, first, that the two presidents, Putin and his Belarusian colleague will meet 13 Times in a year. After the last encounter, but something Special happened: Lukashenko turned down an invitation which he had accepted until then, I'd love to. The two presidents went this time not together to the hockey game. This week, the Belarusian President said: "Russia is about to lose its last ally in the Western direction." Relationship crises, there were always, this seems to be particularly deep.
The reason for this is the demand of Moscow that it should grow together what belongs together. The Basis of a contract concluded in Moscow and Minsk already exactly 20 years ago. On this document, Putin's team is now apparently great hopes in the search for a medium to long - term professional future for Putin.
contract for Federation was as early as 1999 closed
in the year 1999 and was established as binding, that is from Russia and knows Russia is not only a Confederation of States but a Federal state is a Federation with a common legal system, common economic space, common currency and a common head of state. The Post there is today, but he doesn't even have ceremonial functions.
However, this substantive Emptiness could be in the next few years, easy to fill, of which the Moscow leadership is apparently convinced. A candidate then there is: Vladimir Putin. The Good thing is that Putin could be without a constitutional amendment, President the rest of your life, because anything in the contract of elections.Alexander Lukashenko (64) is, since 1994, President of white Russia.Photo: Joerg Carstensen/dpa
Lukashenko has signed this agreement at a time when the government in Russia was so weak as never before. President Boris Yeltsin had directed by his fatal inclination for the high-percentage basis, to be the head of government was a political Nobody by the name of Putin. The hubris-prone Lukashenko saw himself as a ruler of Russia and Belarus.
The Power of Lukashenko shakes
shaking, But now his Power in Minsk is considerably. Yet he self-proclaims, he will not sell his country "for a barrel of Oil". But he has for a long time. Belarus ' business model is based on three pillars: the Russian loans in the billions, which are actually gifts, a duty-free Export of its Goods to Russia and, until recently, duty-free Import of Russian raw materials, and their processed products are sold for hard currency in the West.
Moscow has begun his attack on this business model already. This year, tariffs on Gas and oil Supplies are collected. They will amount to the equivalent of 350 million euros. If necessary, Moscow will increase the pressure at any time.
The scenario is known, Lukashenko has the image of Ukraine. President Viktor Yanukovych, once a good friend of Russia, failed spectacularly in trying to have it both ways and approaching the EU. Long before the change of power in Kiev, Moscow has built up economic pressure, threatened with tariffs and Import bans for Ukrainian Goods.
The West would be even more helpless than in the case of the annexation of Crimea
If Russia is doing with its plans for Belarus, ernst, would the West still loser, as in the case of the annexation of Crimea. First of all, the connection on the basis of the contract would be legally completely clean. Secondly, it is for the EU anyway, not an attractive idea, the autocrat Lukashenko assist. If so, then EU support would only "help to self-help". Brussels would sell to Minsk at the most a fishing. The country needs but the fish and the immediately given.More about
Russia So Putin could remain in PowerJutta Sommerbauer
The white Russians are discussing on the net currently active on the future of Lukashenko. The President called the speculation over a connection "far-fetched". But Lukashenko, of course, that he has no choice. If it succeeds, Putin – and there is little doubt –, the office of the President of a Russian-Belarusian Union, with the actual Power to charge, then only the role of a regional Governor remains for Lukashenko. In the best case.