Katrine Marçal: the British suffer from the lack of panic - then increases the risk of crashing out of the EU.

My mother slept poorly the entire the end of the 90's. It is in all cases as I remember it. And it is, of course, a gross exaggeration. But she was a programmer and had to deal with the so-called millennium bug.

most of The computer systems used two digits rather than four to specify the year. 1999 was 99, and the fear was, therefore, great preparation for the new millennium for everything from nuclear power to banking system would think it was 1900 instead of 2000. The machines would be crazy.

the Planes will fall from the sky, and the prisoners escape from the högsäkerhetsfängelserna.

None of this occurred, however.

And my mom was sleeping better.

placed a crisis management group in a kärnvapenbunker under the ministry of defence. ”Operation Spirit” was activated in the beginning of last week, and its purpose is to help the country cope with a possible crash out of the EU without a formal agreement. 3.500 soldiers to be prepared, among other things, it is thought that they should be able to help with transporting food, petrol and medicines in the country.

If it would be needed.

The impossible looks to perhaps be on the way. Brexitprocessen has collapsed (again..) and it does not seem likely that Theresa Mays agreements going through the british parliament this week, either. The parliament will then probably try to map out some kind of alternative.

You will be voting on other forms of ways out of the current lock-in: everything from a soft Brexit with an agreement of the Norwegian model, to a new referendum. But whether any of these options be able to generate a majority in the parliament is very unclear.

And in that case, the united kingdom actually leaving the EU on 12 april during the chaotic forms.

How chaotic is the big question.

all the food, medicine and goods that come in and out of the country would suddenly need to be checked. Over one night. And the Uk has neither the systems or staff to manage this. 10.000 queuing of trucks is therefore a risk of blocking the roads from the country's major ports. This can quite quickly lead to shortages out there in the shops.

the Uk would overnight lose not only its current access to the EU market, but also to all the countries with which the EU has trade agreements with: economies such as Canada, Japan and Mexico. The country would in one stroke go on to trade under world trade organisation rules.

Tariffs at the average of 5.7 per cent would be applicable on imports from the EU and 4.3 per cent in exports to the EU. The uk could reduce or remove these duties, but then it must also reduce or remove customs duties vis-à-vis the entire rest of the world, such is the world trade organisation rules. Therefore, there is a risk that uk businesses are knocked out in the sectors that are not capable of this type of instant competition with the rest of the world.

in the face of difficult political considerations. And this kind of chaotic Brexit would lead to the worst recession in decades. In any case, if we are to believe the british central bank. Last week, the employers ' organisations and trade unions out in the Uk extremely rare joint proclamation: they warned that this type of Brexit would mean a ”national emergency”

On the other hand: can it really be so bad? For it is anything but a panic among people in the Uk. According to opinion polls would be around 30 per cent of the population even prefer to leave the EU in this way. And, if you look only at conservative voters is the same number, over 50 per cent. Part of this is purely ideological: many britons see a withdrawal without agreement that the only safe way to really guarantee a definite divorce from the EU. Yes, it may cause chaos and economic damage initially but in the long term, would the country and the economy benefit from to be completely free from the EU's rules and influence.

Many britons see a withdrawal without agreement that the only safe way to really guarantee a definite divorce from the EU.

in other words It is just as well to tear off the patch.

it is, however, plain and simple fatigue. If you are bored of reading about all the tours around the Brexit, yes then can you imagine how people in the Uk feel. The protracted negotiations have been humiliating for the country. At the same time is Brexit the overriding issue. There is a frustration both with that it has taken such time and that the european parliament does not seem to be able to decide. Many people react by simply wish for an end to all of it.

at any time.

Brexitören and the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, wrote Monday in The Telegraph that the prime minister, Theresa May should make like Moses in the bible. The prime minister should turn to the ”faraoerna in Brussels” and simply say that Moses did: ”let my people go”.

Then should the Uk leave without a contract.

Cost whatever it costs.

to have forgotten that this particular episode in the Bible was followed by 40 years of virrande in the desert. And that only one person among the thousands who left in this way from Egypt actually managed to get to the promised land.

Well.

Theresa May is not Moses.

And maybe have the economists and the experts are simply wrong regarding the problems of an EU-exit without a contract would create. Maybe it is all just like the millennium bug. It tjatas that the sky must fall down over our heads, but then the hands is barely anything.

The political scientist who has tried to speculate in the remarkable calm also points often to the second world war. The uk was never invaded, and even if you came out of the war as a bankrupt country but the empire went through what many states in east and Central europe went through. The british have simply difficult to imagine such as that the goods shall end.

the Common people giggling in a high degree to such warnings.

Maybe they do absolutely right in it.

political circles are at the same time a picture of it yet will never go so far. ”You will not let it happen” is a phrase I hear a lot. However, it is unclear who exactly this ”man” who will not let the Uk fall over the cliff really is. Tankefiguren, however, is that a crash out of the EU would be a excessive-risk, it simply will not occur.

”Somebody” will stop it all because the world, despite everything, still is a rational place where the mature western democracies don't take this kind of risks with their own finances.

to see a crash as a real possibility is reminiscent of how many thought in the united states before Lehman Brothers fell in 2008. Those who realized what disastrous consequences it would have for the financial system would also in a high degree that the us government just would not let it happen. Of course, one would somehow save the bank.

irrespective of what the finance minister had said.

In the same way, there are plenty in the Uk now that the EU, regardless of what the EU has said, will intervene against a avtalslös Brexit.

However on 15 september 2008, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

And the result was the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Would a avtalslös Brexit to be a Lehman Brothers (in the uk), or a millenniebugg?

It is impossible to say.

can say is that the british lack of panic also increases the risk for just a avtalslös Brexit. There will be a location this week, when Theresa May (if she survives as prime minister) must make a decision. And if Theresa May at the moment know that large parts of the population are not receiving a crash out of the EU. Yes, then it is actually possible that she allows the Uk to stumble across klippavsatsen, rather than, for example, stops the entire Brexitprocessen.

And if Theresa May at the moment know that large parts of the population are not receiving a crash out of the EU. Yes, then it is actually possible that she allows the Uk to stumble across klippavsatsen, rather than, for example, stops the entire Brexitprocessen.

And then it can previously unthinkable actually be conceivable: that the Uk leaving the EU without an agreement on 12 april in the hope that everything is just a millenniebugg.

the Thing is, though, that even the millennium bug is hotly debated. For what had really happened if the programmer that my mother had not been working for years to secure the systems?

Had the aircraft then fell from the sky, and the prisoners escaped from the högsäkerhetsfängelserna?

And one thing is for sure: the Uk has not time to make extensive preparations for a avtalslös Brexit.

this could just be about to turn a blind eye.

And jump.