It can not be excluded, even if the winner of the election Jackdaw Called late on Sunday night repeated the message that she does not intend to cooperate with the xenophobic party in an interview with channel ETV. It means that she has two options for a majority – either cooperate with the Fatherland and the social democrats, two smaller parties who sit in the current coalition, or to create a ”big coalition” with the Centre party, the other great party which lands at around 25 seats.
It most likely is a trepartikoalition led by Jackdaw Called. But the failure of the negotiations has Ekre in a good position as the third largest party with 19 or 20 seats, and will try to play out Reformpartiet and the Centre party against each other.
Ekre thus increases from seven mandate to 19 or 20. It is partly because of the migration issue, where the party benefited from the refugee crisis 2015-16 and to play on the fear of a small nation, the Estonian risk to be wiped out by the coming flyktingvågor. This is despite the fact that the few refugees who ended up in Estonia for a couple of years ago chose to quickly move away.
But the party also wins in extravagant economic promises of lower taxes, and a scepticism towards the EU where Ekre have role models as the prime minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán. Even in countries such as Hungary, Poland and Estonia, where a large majority is in favour of EU membership-and you can earn votes to portray the ”bureaucrats of Brussels” as an evil force.
Yes, Ekre with the leader Mart Helme and his son, Martin Helme will probably step up the rhetoric, strengthened by the outcome of the election. It can be more confrontation than usual in the usually cleaned the Riigikogu.
But even if Ekres the rise is comparable with the Swedish SD's so they will probably not have a particularly large influence over the political agenda, precisely because the issue of immigration in Estonia is really a non-issue. Maybe, Estonia is after all on the way to becoming what former president Toomas Hendrik Ilves dreamed about back in 1999: ”yet another boring nordic country”.
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