for a long time already that the misfortune does not give truce in Argentina. And, in the short term, there is no indication that this will change. With a devastated economy, inflation skyrocketed, and rates of employment in the worst numbers in recent memory, the promise of over thirteen years of kirchnerismo heralding the entry of Mauricio Macri to the Casa Rosada in 2015 does not seem to have been more than that: an illusion, a false illusion become in disappointment.
After almost five years of plummeting, more than 30 million argentines called to the polls next October would have the opportunity to force a change, given the unquestionable emergency situation in which is plunged the country. But once more, and unless an unexpected last-minute surprises, the electorate will be forced to resign from one of two main options, none of them at all encouraging: or Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (this time in the capacity of vice-president or another four years of Macri, obstinate in blaming the economic downturn to the heritage received from its predecessor, and without offering to change many signs of improvement.
"Are the candidates more viable, but its success depends primarily of where to lean the other formations in the event of a second round. And is in the midst of all this marketing is where you are right now," says Anna Ayuso , a researcher specializing in Latin America of the "think tank" of international affairs Cidob. "In any case expect a campaign very flared and polarized, especially by the repulsion generated by both Kirchner and Macri equal parts", he adds, for his part, the analyst argentine Carlos Malamud , of the Elcano Royal Institute.
With polls tipping the balance towards a possible triumph of the partner team in the first of two laps, it all depends, in the judgment of Malamud, the ability to Macri to contain a rise in interest rates and galloping inflation. By contrast, Fernandez, who split with the undeniable advantage of the economic meltdown and social, will have to focus their efforts on convincing the electorate of the credibility of the formula with which they are presented, and trust that the multiple causes that has opened the former president does not have a serious impact on elections. The polls today shed nearly 20 percent of undecided voters, a fact that can be decisive in the battle for the heart and in the end result."The least bad"
in the meantime, the lack of height of both candidates (despite the animosity that its management has generated, Macri has refused from the first time relinquish the baton to other candidates with more options than he) and the absence of a real alternative tarnishing the electoral scenario in one of the worst moments faced by Argentina in recent years. Such is the disenchantment of a society that is deeply unhappy with their political class that until one of the strategists, the key of Macri, Jaime Duran , admitted in an interview last April 25 that " in the contest of the least bad, clearly we win . We are the least bad".
in Front of the president, a born-again Cristina Fernandez is officially in second line, informally, in the shade, return to seize power. Unobtrusive and patient, the former president has remained on the lookout for four long years waiting for that to arrive your time. Polarizing as a few, CFK has to end his comeback with a legacy that is known all over the world: economic crises constant corruption scandals successive and a confrontation front with both the judiciary as with the critical media, who always tried to subjugate.Carlos Malamud: "The triumph of Macri depends on its ability to contain inflation and the rise in rates"
"His eight years in office were characterized by a concentration of power and lack of transparency without hardly unprecedented, with a government composed of a few persons of trust, and that it was she who took virtually all the decisions," recalls the researcher Anna Ayuso. "In terms of the economy, Kirchner undertook a total closure to the outside, which, while short-term boost in domestic production, in the long run reduced the foreign investment and led to both the rise in the cost of the product, such as a defendant's technological gap. This has made, still to this day, Argentina still does not have competitive capacity and industry-efficient," she explains.Weighed at the polls
Both Kirchner and Macri are aware of the backlash faced by broad social sectors, which would put in serious difficulties in its success at the polls. For this reason, both have been obliged to have recourse to wiles and stratagems which, although not consistent with their true aspirations, likely to enable them to expand your fishing grounds, votes.
Thus, we see how Macri has chosen the peronist (a term anathema to the political nature of the president) Miguel Angel Pichetto , who he said was the "clearest example" of the lack of alternation institutional peronism –Pichetto has been president of the party of Kirchner in the Senate since 2002, as number two of his candidacy. Announced, to the surprise of all, the last 11 of June, less than a month after Cristina Fernández to run as vice-president of a tandem headed by the more centrist, Alberto Fernandez , his former chief of cabinet, who left abruptly his last government and said he "seemed like a mouthful to find something good in the final stage of the mandate of Cristina".
A maneuver, the latter, around which there are a number of theories on the possible reasons that have pushed Fernandez de Kirchner to bet on this eye-catching recipe that no one expected. "Why have you chosen that procedure? That would have to ask her. There are those who see it as a strategy to get more support, something that she wouldn't get if off first. But there is also the theory that his decision to come back has been filed this time in getting the power to, from there, to be in a good position to defend your daughter, , which remains pending in Argentina," says Carlos Malamud.
whoever will Win, the expectations do not seem to me, since then, very promising, in the judgment of Ayuso. "At the economic level, the margin of manoeuvre of both is very small. In the event you win Macri confirmed both the right turn from the region as well as a greater opening of the country to the outside. On the contrary, an eventual return of Fernández de Kirchner could mean a return to a government personalistic, with the possibility, even, of attempts to remain in power , while it is true that you do not will have the same power he had as president and that the mechanisms of counter-power in Argentina are more solid than in other countries of the environment," he predicts.