in 1965, published in the american computer scientist Gordon E Moore, one article in which he predicted that the computer capacity would double every two years. Yet, 44 years later, to keep this ”Moore's law” the reasonably dash.
It is a fantastic example of a prediction of the technological development.
But there are other things that are not possible to predict. When Apple created its Iphone with the whole grid in the cell phone loyal to hardly the extent of the success of these smartphones. At least they had the toughest competitor Nokia has not done it.
of us down in the small mobilskärmarna in all possible situations. In the bus or on the sidewalk are people bewitched by something that is not unfolding right there and then.
The development went on to predict the. But who foresaw twenty years ago the social media impact? Then everyone talked about the internet as an almost inexhaustible reference work. Yes, the e-mail was. But it was only a faster mail service, and no media of the troll or even for preachers.
Facebook and Twitter and Instagram had their creator. But the pyramidal success had nothing to do with them, but with the people who gathered in the hundreds of millions to make use of the new opportunities.
the formation of public opinion radically. All who had access to the technology could make themselves heard. By anonymity, they were free to all, from the turning of aphorisms to express themselves the way that one earlier only done on the public toaletternas walls.
The big social movements unpredictability is not something new. No one could imagine labour force until the well was there. The nationalist mass movements that pushed the world wars was completely unexpected. In 1965, explained Jean-Paul Sartre in an interview that the French young people were politically disinterested; three years later he led them himself against the barricades. Feminism's history has commanded on the lines of surprises.
In efterklokhetens light and under the historian the microscope appear to be any such process is quite natural. There are always a thousand circumstances that make the development understandable. But in advance did not know. People create their history, but they do it under certain circumstances, as Marx says.
something new that comes with social media. The unknown or abnormal has always attracted the anger or horror of some. But both the resistance and the hatred runs on faster feet thanks to the social media. Rumors, the ”fake news”, lies, thrown out into space, and lands soft from the gullible.
the Issue of refugees to be allowed in the country are always answered with a no by some. Their reactions can range from muttrande dissatisfaction to the bloody acts of violence. An organized movement and a political party to channel both words and emotions, making them more house-trained and lead ultimately to concrete political results.
At the beginning of the 1990s shaped the New democracy an important part of the opinion. Newspapers and broadcast media gave the front men, Ian and Bert generous space. But the party was too sloppy hopkommet, the leaders too bizarre and the hoprafsade mps too incompetent for that the success would continue. The party fell apart and many of us breathed a sigh of relief.
But also klimatstrejkarna is first and last dependent on social media
suspected that a small nazi sect in the opinion of the suburbs just would take over the role and do it with great success. It took some cunning and resourceful lund students converted kamporganisationen to a party which, although it was extreme, but still acceptable, if not in the salons as in the meeting rooms.
The great success for The sweden democrats would have been unimaginable without social media. The trolls pumped out, the their any incitement to hatred. The meeting between the fleeting world of Twitter, and a fixed partistruktur was a success. As well as the New democracy had The sweden democrats many representatives as not suited in furnished rooms. However, SD brought quickly these impossible types to the side and replaced them with until further notice more presentable name. The process is repeated over and over again. People's ability to forget the SD faux pas seems limitless.
It is possible that the SD soon reached its ceiling. But already, the party has as well as their counterparts around the world have given a real influence over policy. Now SD on the way to the tables of the KD and M. They will become as Dansk folkeparti, only darker and hotfullare.
SD's typical voter is a middle-aged or older man. It may feel like a consolation that the sour old men will soon die away. But the electorate is filled from the bottom up.
the SD is the environmental and climate movement. Which dominates the younger women. Today called the figurehead of Greta Thunberg, 16 years old. Her way from the lonely klimatstrejken on 20 August of last year to the 1.5 million protesters, the masses, march 15 in the year is staggering.
Her action is supported certainly by the elite of climate scientists, while the SD may seek their authority among the various skumraskfigurer. But also klimatstrejkarna is first and last dependent on social media. The image of Greta Thunberg with his placard has wandered around the globe, inspired and angered.
Every opinion need an institution to live on. Enthusiasm has a short burn time. In Sweden, there are now several miljöpartier and out in the world even more. But is there anything to suggest that they would be able to channel the young people's klimatångest? The huge transition that is necessary requires so much of both states and companies. States led by parties that need to win votes in the next election, the company has its vinsttvång. Will politicians and corporations to become wise and long-term enough for such a radical change of direction?
the Future is dark if the economy played out against the ecology, the economic rationality to science's overall sense
it yet. But what people will make of an increasingly devastating climate? They will force their leaders towards a peace with the nature that we all are a part of? Or will they, on the contrary, to try to escape back to an imagined ideal past that the SD with its craze for Sweden in the year 1900, or even longer as the horrors of ICE that think that the 600's were the best time?
the Specialists can with absolute certainty predict that the disasters caused by the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be even more and even harder than today, if nothing radical is done. Will coal and oljemiljardärer to be brought any time? Will politicians finally to take action?
We also know that the growing parts of the globe will become uninhabitable, and cause migrations-widening than the current. Will xenophobia to escalate further?
give any definite answer to. We can just see that both now tend to be right - and vänsterfrågor in politics. The främlingsrädda looking to the right, into or close to the SD. Now, it seems that the same people try to sit with that ”weather is always the weather”. Moderate mps that Lars Beckman and Jan Ericson has joined the ranks of klimattrollen on social media. They are not alone.
the Trend is worrying. The future is dark if the economy played out against the ecology, the economic rationality to science's overall sense.
the Hope is that the young people who have a long future to be careful about. They have not only the next election or the next quarterly report to think about. The world is waiting on them – unless the world does not become uninhabitable.