In the middle of november 1811, the six men with painted black faces in the house associated textilmagnaten Edward Hollingsworth in Nottingham. They were armed with sword and flintlock musket, and, together, they destroyed his templates for the mass production of cheap socks. A week later, they returned to burn down his house.
the Men were part of the british ludditrörelsen, textile workers in the early 1800s, and broke down the machines and vandalized factories in protest against the automation of their occupations, which led to increased poverty and unemployment.
a rebellion against the future and the first industrial revolution, the introduced by the mechanical loom. Then came a second revolution (the steam engine), a third (current band), and now we according to the researchers, before the fourth: intelligent machines. Just as the three previous revolutions, this will have a big impact on our professional life. According to a study at Oxford University can be half of all the professions to be bortautomatiserade to the year 2033.
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In the book ”What to do when machines do everything,” (2017), the authors Malcolm Frank, Paul Roehrig and Ben Pring broken down the numbers. According to their analysis, the 12 percent of jobs disappear in the new industrial revolution, 13 per cent of new jobs will be added, and 75 percent of the existing jobs will be changed by the robot control. The authors have a very optimistic point of view on the future: ”The new machines will raise the standard of living and create an era of economic growth is stronger than anything we have seen in the western world over the last fifty years.”
But the growth of all?
A british report last year, ”The state of social mobility in the UK”, warns that the next automatiseringsvåg will drastically increase the economic inequality in society. In addition to the usual warning signs that the traditional low-paid sectors will be replaced by robots, pointing at how the professions which have been the classic entry jobs in different industries will disappear – and with it the ability to climb in his career and society. Among other things, affected handläggaryrken at law firms, government agencies, courts and legal departments in the different companies when the AI can perform administrative tasks.
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and the author of, among other things, ”Robotrevolutionen” (2015). He says that a clear result from the research of what digitisation and globalisation has meant is that the labour market has become more polarised, with fewer jobs in the middle of the lönefördelningen.
" It certainly has created more jobs with high wages, but more people have also been squeezed into a job with low wages. If job creation is weak, there will be more that are being pushed into jobs with low wages. As in the 90 and early 00's, when jobs increased in the restaurant and tourism sector, who have lower salaries.
He believes that the automation runs the risk of increasing the gaps in society.
The small group that can be very rich in digital innovation reminiscent of the industrialists looked a hundred years ago.
Karl Wennberg, professor of business administration at the Department of economic and industrial development at Linköping university, expresses a similar view. He is worried about the increasing difference between the return on capital, where tax is low, and at work, where the tax is much higher.
– The skatteskillnaden is the highest among all OECD countries. So those who manage to own the algorithms, robots, and companies will go to a sunny future – but perhaps not to we working. This difference is extremely dangerous for our ability to have a cohesive society in the future.
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the report warns also that the better-off people have historically been more flexible and able to adapt to labour market changes. The working class has not so much gained continuing education.
Gunnar Karlsson, professor and head of the Department of network and engineering at KTH, agrees in part, in the perception of the development. But he also sees another, not-so-known effect, that of improving the efficiency of the tasks can mean: a reverse social progression, down.
– Certainly, those with higher education learned better how to learn, but what they haven't learned is to manage a social mobility downward which can be current when professions such as accountants and lawyers can be automated. Therefore, it is difficult to know how it gets. Therefore, I believe that it is best to see the entire society impacted by the automation, and I can't see how a class perspective helps, or even explains, what is happening, " he says.
The u.s. magazine The Atlantic recently published an article about how klassklättrandet in the country decelerated. Half of all 30-year-olds in the united states earns in a day less than their parents did at the same age. Compared with the 1970s, when 90 percent of them earned more than their parents. It, and a continuation of the developments, is also creating a favourable political climate for populism.
" Despite the konjunkturuppsving it is still much lower employment in the united states than 15 years ago. And it is precisely in those geographical areas where the professions been automated as Donald Trump found his biggest support, " says Stefan fölster's.
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Sweden is well prepared for the fourth industrial revolution, since the emergence of the new job depends on how countries adapt to and compensate for it.
" A dozen or so countries in the world have continued a high level of employment and among the top ten countries that reformed in order to facilitate the creation of jobs to find Sweden, Germany, Australia and Canada. Countries that are not compensated, such as Italy, where the disappearance of many jobs: when the automated will not be enough new.
Gunnar Karlsson is more worried about the global than the development of the Swedish economy, because even low-income countries are exposed to change.
– The underpayment of wages the workers will cost still more than the production of robots and the western companies do not want to be associated with the working conditions in those countries: it is considered better with a clean, high-tech factory in Sweden than a ”sweatshop” in Bangladesh. The countries do not have sufficient education in order to move forward in their development.
Daria Isaksson, strategist in digital transformation, and the director general for Vinnova, the governmental agency for innovation systems, is also convinced that Sweden is in a better position than many others. But she lacks a clear plan for how nyskolningen to go to.
" What worries me is that I have not yet seen the specific changes that are needed in order to seriously take advantage of the new opportunities to provide people the conditions for lifelong learning.
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have a favorable position also depends on the characteristics of the future tasks is thought to require. If the robot control enhances the efficiency of the motor skills and cognition becomes emotion, the softer values, more important. And the most important for it, says Karl Wennberg, is good, free preschool, then gentle properties to work in a group and to see the needs of others to be trained up already in childhood, not in higher education.
– Here is during nurses much safer than the auditors. Those who work with other people, to read them and interact with them, will have an even better labour market than in the day, " he says.
He stresses that you rather should talk about the tasks that disappear rather than entire occupations, and the employee thus receives a new role. For example, a public accountant becomes more of a ”business coach”, with an algorithm in your pocket, checking the companies ' accounting, while undersköterskan becomes more of a omvårdare that takes more time to patients and talking with them than one who just goes and checks the pulse and lift, something that robots can already or will soon.
Roland Paulsen, a sociologist and author of ”Arbetssamhället. How the work survived technology” (2010), see a development where the soft track runs along the obehagligare.
With the increasing inequality we see, for example, greater demand for monitoring and security services. The social tensions and the growing alienation that is created also creates the job, it can always console itself with now if you look this with the created of the job as something in itself good.