The real estate market will continue to grow in 2019, but at a lower rate than this year. CaixaBank Research forecasts that the sales of flats to grow by 7.3%, compared to 11.8% expected for this year. The entity considers that it will be a “gradual normalization” of the sector after the increases above the two-digit registered in the past few years and subtracted significance to the impact of the rise in interest rates caused by the change in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), that it is withdrawing its stimulus.
“we Come from rates of growth noticeable and in the next few quarters, there will be a slowdown, but a slowdown in positive,” he said yesterday, Oriol Aspachs, director of Macroeconomics and Financial Markets, CaixaBank Research, hinting that the market could overheat if it maintained the growth of recent years. In the first specific report on the real estate sector that produces the entity appears a horizon sunny with a few clouds, when they appear, especially referring to the delinquencies of the mortgage loans that it still creeps out of the crisis.
Nor is concerned about the 30% growth in the demand of visas by new work, or the number of 558.000 housing that will be purchased, or prices to rise (5.7%, according to the transaction data of the INE), which is expected next year, nor that the new production of mortgage credit to grow by over 10%.
Increase the income available
“The supply of housing still has an important journey ahead, and we anticipate that to continue to advance steadily during the next few years”, reads the document, whose authors believe that the emergence of new supply will be absorbed by the demand. Rely on the reduction of unemployment and on the improvement available from the gross income of the households, which will grow 4.5% next year.
But they put emphasis also in that it does not contemplate that interest rates exceed 0.75% in 2020. If you reach that threshold, the effort (percentage of household income used to pay fees in the first year) of buying a home would increase by 32.1 per cent to 34.6 per cent. And if that scenario contemplates an interest of 2%, the effort would reach 38.8%, still far from 52.8 per cent that was reached in 2008.
Yes warns CaixaBank Research that the tensions in order to acquire flats in the centres of the main cities and tourist resorts is expanding like an oil stain on the surrounding area. Without specific proposals, the bank calls “the design of public policies”. “It is not a concern, still widespread, but there are cases that you would have to study,” said Aspachs.