Machines create more Jobs than they destroy

Replace the machines people? Since 200 years ago, industrialization began, is this fear of the inhabitants of the earth. By the early revolts of the weavers on the 1970s Slogan of "Jobkiller Computer" – to the Thesis of the researchers Michael Osborne and Carl B. Frey 2013, machines could soon be robbed of every second job. Terry Gregory from the Institute for the study of labor (IZA) counters with a counter-bill: Accordingly, the automation Europe in the past decade, in addition, up to 1.5 million Jobs, a January study published shows. For the first Time can be outlined so that the effects of automation in Europe empirically.

Whether the machines of the people are friend or foe, is one of the most intense economic debates. Extreme positions dominate. On the one hand, optimists expect only models, in which machines and humans complement great. On the other hand, sceptics à la Osborne/Frey, the rough professional use of the images and the positive effects of neglect.

With a comprehensive range of models, Gregory and his colleagues are trying to come about from the centre for European economic research (ZEW), closer to reality. Accordingly, machines of Europe cost from 1999 to 2010, indeed Jobs: 1.6 million, particularly in the production. According to the original plans of the company, it would have been even three times as much.

On the other hand, computers and robots have made it possible, Were cheaper to produce. Consumers bought more and created new jobs. The company generated more profits, the change in the wallets of their owners also to more consumption and therefore more jobs. Up to three million Jobs – twice as many were created together, as the machines destroyed.

away from Routine, analytical, and social interactive activities.Terry Gregory

the machines Were made cheaper, consumers are buying more and created new Jobs. This positive balance can be explained by the fact that factories lose their meaning. More and more Employees now work in services, deliver packages, care for the Sick, the design of the houses. You don't have to replace anyway, so far, so easily as in the case of the conveyor-belt production. You look different than in the case of Osborne/Frey instead of gross professional concrete jobs, decreases the potential for automation of 50 percent to 10 percent of the job, argues the OECD, a think-tank of the industrialised countries. Also, the Institute for labour market and occupational research, does not see the Computer as a Jobkiller.

This in no way means that the Dismissed get a new job that suits you. In certain industries, the risks bales. "The employees need to make more, the company retrain", asks Economist Gregory. "Get away from Routine, analytical, and social interactive activities. This is the Transformation, the need to create economies." This means that the Maschinenära impact in the future on the people, depends on the policy.

This is also confirmed by scientists from the world Bank. Accordingly, the automation of the last decades met with workers in the USA, the UK and Australia harder than anywhere else. The reason: A poor social network and poor basic education, which denied wegrationali focused industry workers for new Jobs, be retrained.

survey

you Fear that your Job will eventually be done by machines?

Yes, I'm afraid to be replaced.
no, no machine will ever be able to do my work.
And if you are, then I'll have to retrain me.

Yes, I'm afraid to be replaced.

19.0%

no, no machine will ever be able to do my work.

48.8%

And, if it is, then I'll have to retrain myself.

32.2%

578 votes

Yes, I'm afraid to be replaced.

19.0%

no, no machine will ever be able to do my work.

48.8%

And, if it is, then I'll have to retrain myself.

32.2%

578 votes

What are the consequences of the Boom of the machine has, it also depends on who they belong to. Terry Gregory is determined as a positive effect that the automation generates additional profits that the company owners have to spend – and thus additional Jobs. Foreign shareholders, belongs to a company, however, you give of money mostly abroad. The study has calculated Would be flown down all the profits, in Europe, would be 300’000 jobs less. Therefore, it is by no means no matter whether Chinese, Indians or Arabs are companies that buy up. And thus, there is a strong Argument in favour of making as many of the Native shareholders to participate at the income of the machines – and thus boost consumption.

"The people will have time

the Bottom line is," would the automation in Europe, in the zero years, however, so a positive effect on jobs. The question now is: Will this apply in the future as well? This is the biggest counter-argument of sceptics such as Osborne and Frey: The new technology let the previous not to compare, because they place everything in the shade. Accordingly, robots, computers, and Algorithms could destroy in the future, at the same time simpler and more sophisticated service activities.

you could deliver packages, Sick care, answer customer inquiries in a call center. And at the same time houses design, claims preparation and patient diagnose, such as architects, lawyers and Doctors. In the US, such activities are replaced more often. If machines products cheapen, arise from the additional demand, perhaps, no new Jobs because of the also done by machines.

Terry Gregory finds the to be very pessimistic. "Such horror scenarios in the last centuries again and again," he says. About the artificial intelligence bring very much New. "But such technologies spread more slowly than we thought." And he adds: "of Course no one knows what exactly the future. It is a look into the crystal ball. But people will have time to adapt to it." (Editorial Tamedia)

Created: 10.01.2019, 12:47 PM