Holidays, holiday, and rising gasoline prices?

The holidays are coming up and the summer is getting closer. Felt the gasoline prices rise always time for the holiday season. Should motorists once again to rising fuel prices?

Thomas Spinnler, boerse.ARD.de

says A look into the past: Probably, Yes. The seasonal Oil price Chart shows that a regular increase in the spring is statistically well documented. The gasoline and crude oil prices will not rise in the spring, most of the time, experts explain, especially with the growing demand. With the beautiful Season and the beginning of the holiday season increases the volume of traffic on the roads.

In the United States, the speech of the "Driving Season" in each year with the holiday "Memorial Day" on 27. therefore, May begins. "The highways are filled and the turnover of the tank exploded make. This leads to falling stocks and a rising price for Oil,“ writes Max Holzer, head of portfolio management to the Fund provider Union Investment.

for More price information to the Oil (Brent)

crude oil> seasonal 30 years

everything Is different this Time?

As current data of the ADAC for the month of may show, the price of super petrol unchanged. The diesel price has gone down. In fact, the price of Oil is lubricated in the past few weeks, literally. A Barrel (159 litres) of the US variety WTI was at the end of April, more than 66 dollars, as much as never before in this year. Currently, the price is still around $ 52. In the past four weeks, the WTI prices have dropped by more than 15 percent. So cheap oil was the least in February.

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A more important reason is the Trump factor: The trade dispute between the United States and China seems to be stalled, hopes for a speedy solution have been dashed. The concern that the marked weakening of oil Demand in the Wake of the growing trade conflict was the reason for the current weakness, write to the experts at Commerzbank, in a recent commentary on the Oil market.

fuel prices in Germany, March to may, 2019

The participants in the market is the fear of a slowing world economy, with negative consequences for the demand. Also, many global economic data pointed to last in this direction.

The demand is rising...

But the financial and commodity markets business, especially a days, so motorists should not rejoice too soon. The mood can turn at any time, for example, if it should come to a solution in the customs conflict. And Union-Investment expert, Holzer expects to see again anyway, rise significantly in price in the summer: in addition to the increase in the Demand by the "Driving Season" is a reason "the shortage of supply, among other things, because the US exemptions for Iranian Oil are running".

by the sanctions tightened Supply of oil, it is likely to remain, according to Holzer, first of all, "because there is currently no country that is able to compensate for supply failures and wants". Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, could fill the gap, although, seem to be not ready, the evaluation of the skilled in the art.

... the offer to support rather not

Because the price of Oil is always a political price, the major players in the market have their own interests to pursue: the Oil price, had been agreed by the members of the oil cartel Opec and Russia are on a conveyor brake. Until the beginning of July, they want to now take a decision on how it goes further. Saudi Arabia had brake recently to the Conveyor is known, which could slow a further decline in the price of Oil. A reliable forecast is, therefore, incredibly difficult.

Further course information, to Oil (WTI)

the composition of the consumer price for super petrol, in April 2019.

it is Also important to note that Oil is traded on the world markets in dollars and traded. So, it can happen that, in spite of falling Oil prices, the tank fails to account higher than expected, simply because the Dollar has risen against the Euro. Also, the foreign exchange market plays the price development, therefore, an important role.

"fuel prices are market prices"

And how come the gas prices, anyway? Fuel prices were at market prices, one learns on the subject on the Website of the ADAC. "In the end of the competition decides about the height of the concrete price at the gas station." For all who believe in the blessing results in a price formation on supply and demand, does that sound like a good news.

Unfortunately, the reality looks a bit different: In a sector inquiry in 2011, the Federal cartel office came to the conclusion that "the five large oil companies BP (Aral), Jet, ExxonMobil (Esso), Total and Shell do not competing with one another, and thus to the gas station markets, a dominant oligopoly form".

Therefore, the market transparency unit for fuels will also be established to make it possible to obtain information about the current fuel prices. After all, the consumer does not have to watch now in amazement as the price rises or falls. He can, as he recommends ADAC, by App, compare prices and where to refuel, where it is at least relatively cheap.

source: boerse.ard.de

More:

Oil prices In 2019: Between complacency and uncertainty, 18.01.2019 Oil production is throttled, 07.12.2018 Higher gasoline prices, consumer sentiment, 28.11.2018

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