Air travel expert in an Interview : Germania-insolvency threatened the decentralization of the air traffic

Mr Schwingeler, Germania is insolvent, Air Berlin already for a long time broke. Yesterday, Ryanair announced poor Numbers. Is reached the end of cheap flying?

no, certainly not. Ryanair is not at risk, even if the news are bad. However, we have a number of smaller market participants who struggle to Finance your business stable. The funding is based, unfortunately, often on overly optimistic assumptions. If then ricochet to come, the burden on the result, it creates big problems. But this is not a crisis of cheap air transport. On the contrary; the business model is still in the growth

Remain at the end, then, only Easyjet and Ryanair as a cheap flyer?

throughout the air travel, a concentration movement is taking place. There are three very Large: The Lufthansa group, the International Airline Group's British Airways, as well as the Alliance of Air France and KLM. This includes Ryanair and Easyjet come in cheap flyer. These five companies are gaining more and more importance in the European market. Smaller from divorce tend to be, or be swallowed by the larger.

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Was the insolvency of Germania, therefore, is inevitable, or there was a Management error?

a little bit Of everything. The key factor is the massive Expansion of the past few years. After the bankruptcy of Air Berlin, it was hoped that the new market shares to open up. Here, one can certainly speak of a Management error, because not at all clear whether the Expansion can also be sustainable economically, if some factors change. For example, the fuel prices have tightened in the past year. But you may well also speak of a structural problem, because the big corporations are so cash-rich that you can't back up, for example, kerosene prices, what is small business is often possible. The gap in the capital between small and large is not so huge that crises mostly caused by Management errors, but be considerably strengthened.

Fewer companies mean less competition, will be flying more expensive?

I believe that the prices will slightly rise. But mainly because of rising fuel prices, not due to a decrease of the competition.

Who the gaps will close, the Germania leaves?

I am confident that the tour operator may compensate for the package travel to your Germania flights with their own companies. Thomas Cook Condor or Tui Tuifly. But if all the other Connections from other Airlines to be taken over, is more than questionable.

Jörg Schwingeler, is a Vice President with the aviation-consulting firm Prologis Strategy. He sees Management error in...photo: Prologis Strategy

What is the for the German air travel industry?

This has mainly to smaller airports in the country a great impact. Because Germania was not only in Berlin, Munich and Düsseldorf, but also at many small locations. And since the offer might be to contract significantly in the major Airports will be relocated. The decentralisation of supply is threatened. The power in the Rest of the punctuality and reliability of the already congested major airports, not better. As the industry falls, the Germania-bankruptcy already has a lot of time on the feet

Cheap fly is on the one hand, for reasons of climate protection in the criticism, on the other hand, the possibility means that more people can afford to travel to other countries, a tremendous cultural gain – is this balancing act will eventually solve?

I'm afraid not. But not because the airline industry is not improving, but because the claims of the society to rise. In the 1970s, we had big problems with the volume and the pollutant emissions. The aircraft have been developed since then, solid further. Emissions have declined in both respects. At the same time, the claim of the company is increased. Although the air traffic like hardly any other transport medium was able to reduce its emissions, it has not increased the acceptance.

Jörg Schwingeler, is a Vice President of the consulting company Prologis Strategy, which is mainly used in the aviation industry. Previously, he served as Vice President, Network Development at Air Berlin responsible, and worked as a Managing Director in the Austrian regional airline Intersky.

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