Believe China is approaching Norway: - A rising power

It's all about the money.

Staggering amounts in fact. For as of today using the China 190 billion dollars - around 1600 Norwegian billion - on defence, according to a report from the us department of defense.

In the course of the next few decades is expected to chinese forsvarsbevilgninger to increase sharply. Based on the growth the last few years, suggests the same report that China will get to spend 240 billion dollars on defence in 2028. It corresponds to around 2040 billion.

A solid share of the money China has spent on defense the last few years, however, has gone to the powerful military opprustningen in the South-China-sea - far from Norway's neighbouring areas.

In the area you will find enormous energy resources, large amounts of fish and important shipping routes for international trade.

the Chinese, under the leadership of president Xi Jinping, has invested huge sums to secure access and control of the vast areas of the ocean, among other things, by building artificial islands in the region.

One of the goals is to ensure open shipping lanes to the west.

Now it is about to open a new trade route in Norway's backyard, and the Norwegian intelligence is closely following the China's look, which apparently migrate to the north.

The greatest threats

on Monday this week to let the intelligence services until its open assessment of security threats against Norway in 2019. In the report drawn especially Russia and China out as the greatest threats to the Uk.

2019: Etterretningssjef Morten Haga Lunde presented the Monday E-service open assessment. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB scanpix Show more

Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that both states have implemented measures that have made etterretningsoperasjonene more targeted, coordinated and effective. Norway's proximity to the Arctic and the Northern regions mean that Norway is a much sought after etterretningsmål, called it in the ugraderte report.

the Focus on the militærmaktens development, and the conflict with the West, leads to Russia's greater degree of facing off against China to get support for infrastructure development. The military cooperation between Russia and China is also growing, said the report, which continues:

- In the long term, we need to be prepared on a more distinct chinese presence also in the vicinity our.

But what does it mean?

Etterretningssjef Morten Haga Lunde gave a partial explanation when he in the weekend stated that Norway cannot rule out the possibility that chinese naval vessels in the future can come to patrol in the Arctic in order to safeguard China's interests in the region, according to Aftenposten.

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Experts have pointed out that China's role as a eksportnasjon, and included the import of raw materials for use in production, has made the country dependent on being able to ensure freedom of navigation along vital shipping lanes - so you already are seeing in the South China sea.

- China shows military interest all places where they have large commercial travel, said lieutenant commander Thomas Slensvik to Dagbladet last summer.

It will also to a much greater extent be the case in the Arctic, believe experts Dagbladet has talked with.

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China's large infrastructure investments to the outside world was introduced in 2013 as "The new silk road" (One Belt One Road Initiative). It is president Xi Jinpings major initiative for international engagement, and will be the cementation of China as a central actor in world politics.

Now is our vicinities probably for the trip: In January of last year let chinese authorities for the first time presented a plan for how they see for themselves China's role in the Arctic should be. When it became clear that president Xi Jinpings plans for a new silkevei also involves a side trip into the wilderness. A shortcut to the west.

according to the plan, it is clear that China is interested in resources found in the Arctic, including oil, gas and fishing. At the same time, the chinese authorities emphasized that they want to develop such resources in cooperation with other nations and arctic states.

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China is not a so-called arctic countries. China has no natural border to the Arctic, but refer to themselves as a "near-arctic state". It is estimated that well over 80 per cent of all the resources found in the Arctic fall within the various arctic states ' exclusive economic zone. Thus, there is not much resources to spare for "foreign" states to throw itself over, without having to open up for major conflict being.

- Stronger from 2014

in Order to understand China's role in the Arctic one must, therefore, look to Norway's neighbouring countries Russia, believes the historian and the Asia-researcher Stone Boardroom of the Institute for peace research (Prio).

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- The Russian-chinese cooperation has been very close to for a long time, and has been characterized by a good relationship between the two countries 'top leaders," says Boardroom to the Newspaper.

Collaboration goes back to the soviet time. But the Boardroom believes that an already good relationship between the two countries was further strengthened by the sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

the Sanctions meant Russia had only China to turn to. At the same time, there is no doubt that today there is a discomfort among the russians over the avhengighetsforholdet they have been given to China.

- Stronger presence in the Arctic

Precisely why he believes it is unlikely that Russia in the near future will increase the military cooperation significantly, and that Norway should have to turn to a future with the chinese military forces on our borders.

But China may want to send naval vessels around the world, to show presence. The chinese navy's main task clearly is to keep US and others out of chinese areas. Nevertheless, one can imagine a stronger chinese presence in the Arctic, though I think it can't measure itself with Russia's military activity in the high north, says the Boardroom, before he adds:

- China is a rising power while Russia is a declining power. So in the longer term so it can get to to change.

We have known little about China's impact, to the sea. Until now,

Is there reason to fear China in the high north?

- Which tends I to say no. There is reason to expect a occasionally military presence, and that they will sail in the northern regions. But I believe there is no basis for fear. It is a gradual development that it must be possible to adapt, he believes.

"Blue-water navy"

Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen, professor in arctic studies at the University of Tromsø, mean it is perfectly natural to expect increased chinese presence also in Norway's neighbouring areas.

- It is not something specifically chinese. When an economy is one of the world's largest, and one such economy seek to establish a so-called blue-water navy, a fleet that can operate globally, in order to protect their economic interests all over the world, " says Bertelsen to the Newspaper.

Nevertheless, he believes it is not inconceivable that China, in common with both Nato and Russia, will have a desire to flekse military muscle in the high north.

- For a couple of years ago sailed chinese warships all the way to the Baltic sea to hold exercises with Russia. It is a significant signal to the West that "if you sail warships through the South China sea, as we sail in the Baltic sea", he says and adds:

2017: Chinese destroyer in the Baltic sea:
- Not since The cold war have the parties been so close up to each other

- This is only speculation, but when you have a major Nato exercises in the high north, so you can simultaneously ask whether Russia and China can come to carry out joint exercises in the Barents sea, to show their discontentment. What we will in that case think about it?

- Change in power relationships

He does not believe there is anything unique about the Arctic that makes that China may be of interest to show military power in the area.

- It's rather about a shift in the balance of power in the entire world. China is today the world's second largest economy, but at some point they will become the world's largest. The situation we have had in the world over the last few centuries, where the West has been so dominant over such a long time, is a historically quite unusual situation.

With the economic growth in China will also see a much larger chinese military footprint in the rest of the world, he believes.

the Message is simple: It's all about money. And to ensure access to the money.

the Fear of the cold war on Norway's doorstep increases: - the Threat has re-emerged